So, What Does the Iowa Straw Poll Mean?

The results —

1st	Rep. Michelle Bachmann	4,823 votes/28.5 percent.
2nd	Rep. Ron Paul	4,671 votes/27.6 percent.
3rd	Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty	2,293 votes/13.6 percent.
4th	Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum	1,657 votes/9.8 percent.
5th	Retired CEO Herman Cain	1,456 votes.
6th	Gov. Rick Perry	718 (write in) votes.
7th	Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney	567 votes (2007 winner).
8th	Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich	385 votes.
9th	Fmr. Gov./Amb. Jon Huntsman	69 votes.
10th	Rep. Thaddeus McCotter	35 votes.

(Data based on 16,892 votes cast; results released 7:00 p.m. Saturday; about 2,500 above 2007, but well below the record 23,000 votes cast in 1999.)

The Analysis —

By now, I assume all of you have heard that Gov. Pawlenty dropped out, citing his poor showing. Actually, he polled very well, about 4 times the supposed-front-runner Mitt Romney – an embarrassing 3.35%! But, a lack of staying power is what kills campaigns. Glad we found out early. Also, Gov. Rick Perry tried to steal the news cycle by announcing his candidacy that day. Didn't quite work, although, his write in vote was 4.25%, which I'll call "respectable."

Newsmax.com made two interesting comments:

Paul’s 4,671 votes exceeded the vote total Romney collected in 2007, when he won the straw poll...

The Ames straw poll always attracts the eye of the national media, but only rarely does it accurately predict who wins the GOP nomination.

In 1980, for example, George H. W. Bush won the straw poll over eventual nominee Ronald Reagan. In 1988, 700 Club Founder Pat Robertson won the straw poll, while the elder Bush won the nomination. However, George W. Bush won both the straw poll and the nomination in 2000.

In 2007, Mitt Romney won the Iowa straw poll with 4,516 votes, which was 31.6 percent of ballots cast. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee placed second with 2,587 votes that year, representing 18.1 percent.

The Poll is no great indicator, says Michelle Malkin:

Not counting this year’s Straw Poll, this vote has been conducted five times since 1979. Three of those five Straw Poll winners also went on to victory the Iowa Caucus. One of the five went on to win the White House in the same election cycle.

CBSNews.com offered valuable insight:

Despite all this, the straw poll matters. A lot. Why? Because politics is a game of perception. And a win in the straw poll, meaningless though it may be, can fundamentally change how a candidate is seen by the media, the Republican establishment and the donors who make or break a campaign.

USAToday's editorial page had the best spin on the day, "Our view: Iowa's straw poll doesn't deserve mega attention." In many respects, that is true, but I'll editorialize by saying they just want to downplay the Bachmann win. The paper consistently publishes favorably toward Pres. Obama.

The most interesting comment, which I cannot credit because I heard it second hand, took a very different view of this poll. The pundit agreed that the results mean little, in the big scheme of presidential politics, but it does show something important — who can get their supporters out! That, of course, is the win, earning the support of voters and getting them to the voting booths. Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul really did the job this time. What the next few months will show is up in the air, but the bar has been set.

Of course, we have to note that there is one big monkey sitting out there that could yet be thrown into the works, and former Gov. Sarah Palin's hand is around that wrench. Will she announce? When will she announce? How effective will her campaign be? Will she recapture the American spirit the way she did in 2008?

Personally, my preferences are Bachman and Palin, and not just because both have great legs, but because both also have great minds and lots of intestinal fortitude in between. Paul is a non-issue to me, I usually like what he adds to the debate, but he is too libertarian to win the Republican nom. (I'd make him Federal Reserve Board chairman and tell him I want an audit followed by prosecutions, lots and lots of prosecutions!) I'm watching Santorum closely, he has possibilities. Forget Cain – also Gingrich, Huntsman and McCotter – their stars will fade rather quickly. (Though, if I won, I'd certainly consider Cain as Commerce Secretary, and I'd definitely send Huntsman back to China.) I think Perry and Romney will be contenders but will end up like Romney and Huckabee in 2008. (Perry is more a guess than anything, Romney I am sure will last no longer than he did last time.)

Every potential Republican presidential nominee has negatives; every one of them has positives. I hope America is thinking hard about which are more important.

Wow, political predictions – on record and in public! We'll see in about 8 months if my instincts are good.

This is what makes American politics fun.

Thanks for listening, tune in next week for another rant.